Opinion: How many people does it take to effect change over something like LGBTQ+ in a denomination? Not as many as you might think

Now that the votes are in on churches like Southridge, FreeChurch and Jubilee, people who are in favour of more conversation about LGBTQ+ welcome and affirmation are feeling disappointed—while those who voted for their removal are feeling positive about the results.

But both groups should be taking a moment to pause when they consider new research about how what percentage of a population is needed to sway a majority opinion in a different direction.

First, some background.

In Ontario, 87 percent of delegates to the Ontario Mennonite Brethren Conference convention voted to remove Southridge Community Church from membership. (No vote total was given for Toronto FreeChurch.) So, 13 percent voted against it. (For whatever reason.) 

In Manitoba, just over 74 percent voted to oust Jubilee Mennonite Church from the Mennonite Brethren Church of Manitoba. Almost 25 percent said no to removing them.

In both cases, those are powerful mandates. But research published in the journal Science in 2018 suggests a different view of the results—especially in Manitoba.

In the abstract about the research, the publication notes that all it takes to overturn a consensus opinion is for 25 percent of people to hold a different perspective. 

In an interview in Scientific American, one of the researchers, Damon Centola, an associate professor in the Annenberg School of Communications at the University of Pennsylvania, elaborated on the findings.  

The classic model "says that once an equilibrium is established, in order to change it you need 51 percent,” he said.

“And what these results say is no, a small minority can be really effective, even when people resist the minority view.”

The team’s computer modeling indicated a minority of 25 percent of a population would be sufficient to reverse a majority opinion for populations as large as 100,000.

For some, this represents the tipping point, the percentage of a given population that is needed to change a group's behaviour or way of thinking. 

Thinking about this reminds of previous debates over issues that were once a majority view but aren't any longer: Enabling women so serve as ministers, admitting divorced and remarried people into membership, and also slavery (much further back).

Other issues that once were considered sacrosanct among Mennonite Brethren included, for some churches, excommunicating those who married outside the denomination (including to members of other non-Mennonite Brethren churches), or the use of the German language.

In all those cases, what started out as a minority view grew until the entire denomination changed its mind on those topics. (Although not all churches are open to women in ministry.)

When it comes to LGBT+ welcome and affirmation among Mennonite Brethren in Canada, the denomination has barely begun this journey. It was only in 2021—just two years ago—when some members of the denomination began to call for more conversation on the topic.

(That was also the year Artisan Church pulled out of the B.C. Mennonite Brethren conference over this topic, the first church to do so.)

So it’s something for there to be 25 percent of delegates at a convention in Manitoba saying no to removing a church because it welcomes and affirms LGBTQ+ people, and 13 percent opposing it in Ontario.

Of course, those who want change won't see it happen overnight. But those who want nothing to change shouldn't think it won't happen, either.

Not if the research is right, anyway.